Brazilian soy production in the 2025/26 harvest is expected to surpass records set in the 2024/25 season. The expectation is for the country to produce 177.6 million tons, an increase of 3.5% in relation to the previous cycle, as estimated by the first survey of the National Supply Company (Conab). In total, Brazilian grain production is expected to increase by 0.8% to 354.7 million tons.

In most analyses, the renewal of the record is not questioned. Doubts, however, hover around profits. According to a report by Datagro agricultural consultancy, producers should increase their planted area by 2%, boosted by soy’s baseline profitability, which refers to the amount they should earn from sales before accounting for fixed expenses.

Even with a 28% recoil from the previous cycle to 17% this harvest, profitability should stay positive in relation to other crops – and even improve in some regions.

This means that for every 100 reais earned from the oilseed, the farmer should earn 17 reais of net profit, taking into account the base price of Rondonópolis (MS), the standard average for the country.

“The producer evaluates if it is worth investing in a certain crop. While it is, which means that it is not equal to or close to zero, he will opt to plant soy instead of corn or cotton. There are incentives to increase plantation area”, affirms the consultancy.

According to Datagro, northern Rio Grande do Sul, for instance, is expected to increase its profitability from -7% in the last harvest to 25% this season. In southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the expectation is for growth to increase from 13% to 21%.

“In the other states, such as Goiás, Mato Grosso and Paraná, the forecast is for a slight drop, but still in levels above the historical average – which allows some cost dilution per hectare”, according to the consultancy.

The confirmation of La Niña by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), however, can compromise these numbers.

In this climatic event, the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean drops below average, resulting in effects such as increased rainfall in Asia and drier conditions in some regions of South America. In this case, eyes are turned – again – to Rio Grande do Sul, one of the leading soy producers in Brazil.

“Models already indicated a scenario of humidity deficit in the South, which can generate periods of draught. But the consequences of these phenomena are always subject to slight variations” says Willians Bini, meteorologist and head of New Businesses for Metos Brasil, which offers monitoring solutions for agribusiness.