Optimism has returned to the forefront among Brazilian financial directors—albeit cautiously. The CFO Confidence Index (iCFO) reached 126.9 points in the third quarter of 2025, a slight increase from the 125.7 points in the previous period, but still below the levels of 2024, when it consistently remained above 127 points.

The index, created by the Brazilian Institute of Finance Executives (IBEF-SP) in partnership with Exame Saint Paul, reflects a Brazil that inspires more confidence in the short term, but still faces well-known headwinds. Weak domestic demand (19.4%), high interest rates (15.1%), and the political environment (9.4%) are the three biggest concerns among respondents.

The IBEF-SP indicator has three components: one focused on the macroeconomy, another related to the sectors in which CFOs operate, and a third concerning the companies themselves.

The latest reading suggests that, [highlight]while executives are more confident in the capacity of their own businesses and sectors, the macroeconomic environment is still not showing clear signs of improvement[/highlight]—a reflection of an expected average Selic rate of 14.3% and a projected dollar exchange rate of R$ 5.51. The expectation for 2025 GDP growth is 2.1%, based on the average of the collected projections.

In the quarter ending in September, the highlight was the sectoral component, which rose 3.5 points to 128.6. The index for companies (iCFOe) also increased marginally to 132.5, while the macroeconomic index (iCFOm) remained stable at 119.8.

Technology Dominates Investment Plans – but No M&As

Even with caution, investment plans remain firm. Three out of ten CFOs plan to invest in information technology (IT) over the next 12 months—a trend that has been consistent since the beginning of the historical series in 2016. In second place are investments in expanding installed capacity, mentioned by 25.5% of the executives.

Among those planning to invest in IT, 47% said they will allocate less than half of the budget to artificial intelligence and Big Data solutions. In comparison, 19% said they don’t foresee any investment in these areas. Only one-third of respondents plan to allocate 50% or more of the technology budget to AI and data.

The survey also revealed a concerning fact: 83% of CFOs do not plan to invest in acquiring startups or innovation hubs in the coming months. This contrasts with the narrative of digital transformation and sustainable growth that dominates the corporate environment and suggests a pause in bets on more disruptive innovation—possibly due to the high cost of capital.

On the employment side, the signals are more encouraging: 41% of CFOs expect to increase their workforce and the number of outsourced employees by mid-2026, compared to 28% in the third-quarter 2024 survey.

On the other hand, the share of those planning to reduce teams also grew, from 18% to 21%, indicating a polarization between companies in expansion and others still adjusting costs.

The iCFO score range, collected quarterly since 2016, goes from 20 to 180, with 100 points representing the neutral level of CFO expectations for the next 12 months.

The lower limit of the index scale, 20 points, indicates the highest level of pessimism. In contrast, the upper limit, 180 points, indicates the highest level of optimism regarding CFO expectations for the next 12 months.