Análise: No primeiro ato, Trump entregou exatamente o que prometeu
Presidente dos EUA cumpriu à risca promessas eleitorais, mas aprovação está em queda. Agora, inicia-se um período de reação
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O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, assina ordens executivas no Salão Oval da Casa Branca em Washington, DC, em 20 de janeiro de 2025. (Foto de Jim WATSON / AFP) (Jim WATSON/AFP)
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Editor de Macroeconomia
Publicado em 29 de abril de 2025 às 16h21.
Última atualização em 29 de abril de 2025 às 16h58.
Em julho de 2024, Donald Trump era conclamado, de forma uníssona, na convenção republicana. EXAME estava lá, observando a energia catalisadora do agora presidente e a devoção de todo o evento à sua personalidade. Dias antes, ele havia sido vítima de um atentado que, por milímetros, não tirou sua vida. Isso tornava a convenção ainda mais pessoalista — em certos momentos, messiânica.
No palco, Trump e seus correligionários prometiam, entre muitas outras coisas, acabar com a política de imigração dos democratas, recuperar empregos e acabar com a agenda identitária Woke no país. Gritos de "Drill, baby, Drill!" ("Perfure", em referência a incentivar a indústria de óleo e gás) eram sempre acompanhados de uma saraivada de palmas. E, quase sempre, os discursos terminavam com a frase mote do movimento Make America Great Again (MAGA): "Fight! Fight! (Lute! Lute!)"
Os primeiros 100 dias de Trump podem ser considerados o primeiro movimento de um jogo de quatro anos. Nele, a luta foi o símbolo das iniciativas. E essa peleja foi agressiva, até para os parâmetros do bilionário.
A intensidade com que o republicano levou a cabo sua agenda foi arrasadora. De memes colocando o Canadá — um tradicional aliado — como 51º estado dos EUA a um constrangedor bate-boca em pleno Salão Oval com o presidente da Ucrânia, Volodymy Zelensky, Trump agiu com ferocidade, fazendo bullying com aliados e até sugerindo que tomaria a Faixa de Gaza e a transformaria em um balneário de férias luxuoso (com um vídeo gerado por IA).
Diversos imigrantes foram deportados e cercados pelas autoridades — alguns por apoiarem movimentos anti-Israel. Segundo a NPR, rádio pública do país, a administração utilizou uma ampla gama de poderes governamentais para iniciar investigações criminais, prender pessoas em centros de detenção da ICE, proibir empresas de receber contratos federais, revogar autorizações de segurança e demitir funcionários. Ao menos 100 pessoas foram alvo dessa agenda de retribuição, como alcunhou a imprensa americana.
Nas tarifas, ele chocou economistas ao apresentar uma equação frágil para justificar a imposição de taxas proibitivas ao comércio — as quais estão suspensas até julho.
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![Donald Trump e Volodymyr Zelensky se encontram na Casa Branca (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)]( "Donald Trump e Volodymyr Zelensky se encontram na Casa Branca (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)")
1/5 Donald Trump e Volodymyr Zelensky se encontram na Casa Branca (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Donald Trump e Volodymyr Zelensky)
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![O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, e o presidente francês, Emmanuel Macron, apertam as mãos no final de uma entrevista coletiva conjunta no Salão Leste da Casa Branca, em Washington, DC, em 24 de fevereiro de 2025. (Foto de ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP)]( "O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, e o presidente francês, Emmanuel Macron, apertam as mãos no final de uma entrevista coletiva conjunta no Salão Leste da Casa Branca, em Washington, DC, em 24 de fevereiro de 2025. (Foto de ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP)")
2/5 O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, e o presidente francês, Emmanuel Macron, apertam as mãos no final de uma entrevista coletiva conjunta no Salão Leste da Casa Branca, em Washington, DC, em 24 de fevereiro de 2025. (Foto de ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP) (Donald Trump Emmanuel Macron)
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![O presidente Trump se encontra com o rei e o príncipe herdeiro da Jordânia na Casa Branca]( "O presidente Trump se encontra com o rei e o príncipe herdeiro da Jordânia na Casa Branca")
3/5 O presidente Trump se encontra com o rei e o príncipe herdeiro da Jordânia na Casa Branca (President Trump Meets With The King And Crown Prince Of Jordan At The White House)
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![Os presidentes Javier Milei e Donald Trump, em evento nos EUA]( "Os presidentes Javier Milei e Donald Trump, em evento nos EUA")
4/5 Os presidentes Javier Milei e Donald Trump, em evento nos EUA (Trump e Milei)
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![O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump (R), e o primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido, Keir Starmer, partem após uma entrevista coletiva na Sala Leste da Casa Branca]( "O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump (R), e o primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido, Keir Starmer, partem após uma entrevista coletiva na Sala Leste da Casa Branca")
5/5 O presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump (R), e o primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido, Keir Starmer, partem após uma entrevista coletiva na Sala Leste da Casa Branca (UK Prime Minister Meets With President Trump In Washington)
As muitas frentes de batalha de Trump
O republicano abriu diversas frentes de batalha, na busca de entregar justamente — e exatamente — o que prometeu.
Na economia, ele redesenha o cenário de comércio global instaurado desde os anos 1940 por meio da política tarifária — as consequências disso ainda são incertas. Na frente da imigração, demonstrou toda a força que prometeu, com batidas diárias das autoridades de imigração que já levaram a 150 mil deportações, segundo a Casa Branca.
Na reestruturação do governo federal, feita pelo DOGE, departamento liderado pelo bilionário Elon Musk, Trump demitiu milhares de servidores. A iniciativa, porém, já reduziu as estimativas de economias de US$ 1 trilhão para US$ 150 bilhões-- e tudo indica que seu resultado final será um corte de US$ 30 a US$ 50 bilhões.
Na frente da "guerra cultural", pilar essencial à existência de seu movimento, a gestão de Trump avançou sobre universidades, políticas de diversidade e até escritórios de advocacia. O quiproquó entre o Executivo e Judiciário americanos está contratado, com ordens desafiadas e diversos casos em andamento.
Em outras áreas, como nas guerras em curso no planeta, ele não conseguiu acabar com os conflitos, como prometido. Mas tomou medidas, à sua maneira, para mitigá-los. Apesar disso, os combates em Gaza e na Ucrânia seguem em andamento, com mortes diárias e sem perspectivas claras de resolução à vista.
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Fica patente, portanto, que tudo o que o republicano entregou estava citado em suas promessas de campanha. Seus comunicados de imprensa sempre salientam a frase "promessas feitas, promessas cumpridas". Pode-se acusá-lo de muitas coisas, estelionato eleitoral não é uma delas. Concorde-se ou não com os métodos.
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![Former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives onstage to accept his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP)]( "Former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives onstage to accept his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP)")
1/13 Former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives onstage to accept his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Day 4 - Republican Party presidential nominating convention)
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![Donald Trump, durante a Convenção Nacional Republicana, em Milwaukee]( "Donald Trump, durante a Convenção Nacional Republicana, em Milwaukee")
2/13 Donald Trump, durante a Convenção Nacional Republicana, em Milwaukee (Day 4 - Republican Party presidential nominating convention)
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![An overall view as former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump accepts his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Pedro UGARTE / AFP)]( "An overall view as former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump accepts his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Pedro UGARTE / AFP)")
3/13 An overall view as former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump accepts his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Pedro UGARTE / AFP) (Day 4 - Republican Party presidential nominating convention)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump embraces the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore as he speaks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump embraces the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore as he speaks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
4/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump embraces the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore as he speaks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks next to the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks next to the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
5/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks next to the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
6/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
7/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
8/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
9/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
10/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
11/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Andrew Harnik / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)]( "MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Andrew Harnik / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)")
12/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Andrew Harnik / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
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![O candidato republicano à presidência, o ex-presidente dos EUA Donald Trump, fala após aceitar oficialmente a nomeação presidencial republicana no palco no quarto dia da Convenção Nacional Republicana no Fiserv Forum em 18 de julho de 2024, em Milwaukee, Wisconsin.]( "O candidato republicano à presidência, o ex-presidente dos EUA Donald Trump, fala após aceitar oficialmente a nomeação presidencial republicana no palco no quarto dia da Convenção Nacional Republicana no Fiserv Forum em 18 de julho de 2024, em Milwaukee, Wisconsin.")
13/13 O candidato republicano à presidência, o ex-presidente dos EUA Donald Trump, fala após aceitar oficialmente a nomeação presidencial republicana no palco no quarto dia da Convenção Nacional Republicana no Fiserv Forum em 18 de julho de 2024, em Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
O segundo ato
Se esses primeiros 100 dias podem ser resumidos em um primeiro ato, inicia-se agora uma nova fase, de reação. Das instituições norte-americanas, das pessoas, das empresas, de outros países — e, quem sabe, até do Congresso, que pouco o desafiou nesse período.
Até aqui, Trump agiu unilateralmente. As empresas e os mercados já sentiram o efeito de suas medidas — e mostraram um limite: o mercado de títulos da dívida pública dos EUA. Mas a população e a vida mundana ainda não foram invadidas pelo choque de oferta que as tarifas trumpianas vão gerar. Empresas, como supermercados, estão lançando mão de seus estoques para tentar manter os preços estáveis. Em algum momento, os novos produtos vindouros ficarão mais caros, um custo que será repassado parcial ou totalmente para o americano médio.
De outra ponta, a economia americana dá sinais de redução de ritmo, e o cenário de estagflação (inflação e estagnação econômica) ganha força entre analistas econômicos.
O primeiro movimento de Trump já lhe custou 7 pontos de aprovação, segundo o instituto de pesquisa Pew Research Center. Ele segue firme entre seus apoiadores: mais de 70% dos republicanos apoiam suas medidas. Mas, como lembrou o professor Mauricio Moura à EXAME, os mais afetados caso esse cenário econômico se concretize serão os seus eleitores — mais pobres e com menor nível de escolaridade —, o que indica um risco futuro à sua popularidade com a própria base.
Até isso acontecer — se acontecer—, ele pode mudar de ideia, voltar atrás, culpar o "sistema" e dizer que o plano era outro o tempo todo. Mas terá a seu favor ter entregue tudo o que prometeu ao se apresentar como candidato ao povo americano. Como na Convenção Republicana, o lema "lute!" parece mais vivo do que nunca.
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