Belém - Latin America is experiencing a decisive moment, marked by electoral volatility and sudden changes in government. For Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia and Nobel Peace Prize winner, this ideological pendulum is not a sign of democratic vitality, but of fragility caused by political polarization. “Extremes prevent democracies from being effective,” he told EXAME during his participation in the Conference of the Parties (COP30).

According to Santos, who received a Nobel Peace Prize for the peace agreement with Farc in his country in 2016, the region has unique conditions to lead the global energy transition, with vast mineral resources and agricultural potential to supply the planet, which is under pressure from the climate crisis.

However, the turbulent political environment and the difficulty of re-electing incumbent governments—as illustrated in the Chilean elections on Sunday, November 16—prevent opportunities from being converted into stable, long-term public policies. “These political swings, this polarization in all countries, are preventing this,” he said.

Santos observes that voter frustration fuels the cycle of radical change: left-wing governments struggle to deliver results, which opens the door for the right—which, in turn, faces similar obstacles.

The cumulative effect, he argues, is a continent caught between inflated expectations, unrealistic promises, and poor governance.

“The left comes in. And it has difficulty governing. People become frustrated and go to the other extreme. Or the right comes in. It also has difficulty governing due to radicalization, and people are moving to the left. We are seeing this pendulum,” he summarized.

The former president recalls that solid democracies depend on an element that, in his view, has disappeared from the Latin American political vocabulary: moderation.

Quoting George Washington, Santos stated that regional stability involves rebuilding a minimum consensus and reducing the political cost of governing from the center. “Never forget the word moderation,” he said, echoing the warning of the first President of the United States.

Trump's pressure on Latin America

External tensions also aggravate the governance crisis in the region. Asked about US President Donald Trump's recent military movements in the Caribbean, which have caused concern among Latin American governments, Santos says he hopes for transparency about the operation's real intentions.

“We will see what his true intentions are, because there have been contradictory signals, and I hope it is not something that will lead to violence, to a dramatic situation,” he said.

For the former president, instability is not an inevitable fate, but the result of political choices. Santos argues that countries in the region should abandon the logic of radicalization and adopt consensus agendas focused on sustainable development, regional integration, and the reduction of inequalities.

“Extremes lead us to populism, which in the long run is totally counterproductive. It doesn't matter if someone is center-right or center-left, but avoiding extremes is what I aspire to in Latin America,” he said.

COP30: Science, political will, and the search for an agreement on fossil fuels

At COP30, Juan Manuel Santos joined a group of scientists who, in an effort to draw the attention of negotiators, delivered a document to authorities on Monday morning, calling for immediate action to prevent climate collapse.

Santos was moderately optimistic about the possibility of a robust agreement, provided that political will prevails. According to him, disagreements in the first week are common, and the decisive phase begins with the arrival of ministers this week.

“Everything is possible if there is a will,” he said, commenting on the differences between fossil fuel-producing countries and nations that advocate more aggressive goals.

As leader of the Planetary Guardians, a group based on scientific evidence, and the Elders organization, Santos emphasizes that climate policy must “bridge the gap between science and politics.”

For him, science clearly points the way to limiting global warming and saving critical ecosystems—such as the Amazon and coral reefs, two priorities he cited.

The former president of Colombia also criticized the United States' stance, which has not yet signaled full adherence to the main negotiating fronts. “If the President of the United States does not want to join this cause, that is his problem. The rest of the world cannot wait for the United States to make a decision, whatever it may be,” he said.

Regardless of the US position, Santos continued, Latin American and European countries have a responsibility to move forward with ambitious commitments to ensure a viable future for the planet. “We all want to commit to moving forward, because it is the future of all of us,” he said.